IIn an era of rapid market shifts and information overload, the true competitive edge lies not in the volume of data, but in the speed and accuracy of strategic foresight and response. For over two decades, we have partnered with multinational leadership teams across Latin America, Iberia, and the United States to transform raw market signals into decisive corporate action.
The following publications represent a synthesis of field-tested methodologies and strategic frameworks designed for high-stakes environments. These works explore the intersection of adversarial strategy, tactical early warning systems, and the rigorous execution required to bridge the gap between a CEO’s vision and market reality. This body of thought leadership serves as a roadmap for executives who require more than just analysis; they require a blueprint for organizational agility and sustainable competitive advantage in volatile territories.
Adversarial Forward Strategy and Business Wargaming
Anticipating rival maneuvers and stress-testing strategy through high-fidelity simulations.
Wargames: Strategic Thinking When the Competitor Also Plays (original language: Spanish)
Author: Adrian Alvarez, Midas’ Managing Partner
Media: Universidad de Buenos Aires (UBA) – Graduados
Year: 2025
Modern strategy often fails because it assumes a passive market. This piece explores the “adversarial” nature of business, detailing how wargaming allows leadership teams to simulate competitor reactions. By “playing the game” before entering the market, executives can identify critical blind spots and refine their competitive edge. Link to Article
Business Wargaming: A Practical Framework for Strategy Stress-Testing (original language: Spanish)
Author: Adrian Alvarez, Midas’ Managing Partner
Media: Moneda Única (Spain)
Year: 2011
Competitive failure often stems from a lack of “competitor empathy”—failing to predict how rivals will react to your moves. This article details how structured wargaming allows leadership teams to exploit competitor weaknesses and refine their own strategy before a single dollar is risked in the real world. Link to Article
Knowing the Enemy: Refining Strategy through Competitor Response Analysis (original language: Spanish)
Authors: Adrian Alvarez, Midas’ Managing Partner and Federico Ast
Media: INCAE Business Review (Costa Rican university with a long-term relationship to Harvard University)
Year: 2010
Most corporate strategies are developed in a vacuum, assuming a passive market. This analysis addresses the fact that 80% of executives are routinely surprised by rival move, as mentioned by McKinsey. It provides a systematic framework for predicting competitor reactions. It transforms strategy from a static document into a dynamic tool for risk reduction and market dominance. Link to Article
Tactical Wargaming: Driving Sales Force Effectiveness through Simulation (original language: Spanish)
Author: Adrian Alvarez, Midas’ Managing Partner
Media: Pharmaceutical Management
Year: 2010
Strategy often fails at the point of execution. By applying wargaming to the tactical level, organizations can significantly increase ROI by training sales teams to neutralize competitor counter-arguments in real-time. This entry quantifies the impact of simulation on market share retention and revenue growth. Link to Article
Strategic Foresight, Analysis, and Execution Excellence
Bridging the gap between corporate vision and organizational results.
Strategic Questions: Aligning Business Trends with Execution (original language: Spanish)
Author: Adrian Alvarez, Midas’ Managing Partner
Media: Book Master en Negocios (Chapter 6) (was a best seller in Argentina)
Year: 2011
Many strategies fail not in their design, but in their delivery. This work outlines the critical questions boards must ask to ensure their strategy is actionable. It introduces the concept of the Office of Strategy Management (OSM) as a central hub for ensuring that every level of the organization is aligned with the CEO’s core objectives. Link to the Book Chapter
Analyzing the Business and the Environment: A Framework for Strategic Formulation (original language: Spanish)
Author: Adrian Alvarez, Midas’ Managing Partner
Media: Book Master en Negocios (Chapter 3) (was a best seller in Argentina)
Year: 2010
Strategy begins with a clear-eyed assessment of the landscape. Drawing on Sun Tzu’s principle of “knowing the enemy and yourself,” this chapter provides a roadmap for using environmental analysis tools—from PEST to Porter’s Five Forces—not as academic exercises, but as filters for identifying high-value strategic opportunities. Link to the Book Chapter
Critical Success Factors: Refining Strategic Focus for Market Leadership (original language: Portuguese)
Author: Adrian Alvarez, Midas’ Managing Partner
Media: ASUG Magazine (Brazil)
Year: 2012
Executive attention is a finite resource. By identifying the few essential variables that dictate success in a specific sector, leaders can move from generic planning to surgical execution. This work provides a methodology for distilling complex market dynamics into actionable strategic pillars. Link to the Article
Strategic Foresight, Early Warning, and Intelligence ROI
Operationalizing foresight to detect and neutralize “weak signals” before they become crises.
Situational Early Warning: Bridging the Gap Between Strategy and Tactics
Author: Adrian Alvarez, Midas’ Managing Partner
Media: Competitive Intelligence Magazine (USA)
Year: 2007
Most early warning systems are excellent at predicting the arrival of a law but fail to signal the arrival of a price war. This article introduces a methodology for capturing “incremental change” signals, ensuring that tactical surprises do not derail long-term strategic objectives. Link to the Article
Quantitative ROI in Market Intelligence and Strategic Foresight: A Practical Case Study (original language: Spanish)
Authors: Adrian Alvarez, Midas’ Managing Partnerand Germán Kibel
Media: Puzzle Magazine (Spain)
Year: 2006
For the CFO, the value of intelligence must be measurable. This entry provides a quantitative framework for assessing the impact of competitive intelligence projects, ensuring that strategic foresight is viewed as a value-center rather than a cost-center. Link to the Article
Cross-Border Operations and Regional Strategy
Adapting global mandates to the realities of Latin American and Iberian markets.
Multi-Country Project Management: Frameworks for Global Execution. Lessons from Latin America (original language: German)
Author: Adrian Alvarez, Midas’ Managing Partner
Media: Information, Wissenschaft und Praxis (Germany, Scopus Indexed)
Year: 2007
Designed for firms expanding into Latin American markets, this publication offers a structured approach to cross-border project management. It highlights best practices for planning, analysis, and feedback loops in high-stakes international expansion. Link to the Article
Intelligence Architectures for Emerging Markets: The Latin American Context (original language: Spanish)
Author: Adrian Alvarez, Midas’ Managing Partner
Media: Puzzle Magazine (Spain)
Year: 2005
In environments where secondary data is scarce, “human intelligence” becomes the primary currency. This analysis examines the specific constraints and advantages of operating in Latin America, offering global leaders a guide on how to adapt their intelligence gathering to regional realities. Link to the Article
High-Stakes Sector Focus: Strategic Foresight in Healthcare and Life Sciences
Value creation and stakeholder management in highly regulated environments.
Value Propositions for High-Cost Innovation: Navigating the Argentine Healthcare Market (original language: Spanish)
Author: Adrian Alvarez, Midas’ Managing Partner
Media: Revista de Ciencias Empresariales y Sociales
Year: 2022
In the world of specialty innovative medicines, a “resonant” value proposition is the only way to clear the hurdles of payers and auditors. This research provides a roadmap for designing value propositions that speak directly to the needs of financial stakeholders and healthcare decision-makers. Link to the Article
Defensive Strategic Foresight: Orchestrating the Product Counter-Launch (original language: Spanish)
Author: Adrian Alvarez, Midas’ Managing Partner
Media: Pharmaceutical Management
Year: 2010
A competitor’s launch does not have to result in lost share. This article explores the mechanics of “counter-launch” planning—a proactive defensive strategy designed to protect high-value “workhorse” products and extend their lifecycle through calculated market responses. Link to the Article
Business Wargaming: Optimizing Strategy, Strategic Foresight and Outcomes in the Pharmaceutical Sector (original language: Spanish)
Author: Adrian Alvarez, Midas’ Managing Partner
Media: Pharmaceutical Management
Year: 2009
In high-stakes markets, assuming a passive competitor is a recipe for failure. This article explores how pharmaceutical leaders use simulations to stress-test global launch strategies and refine key messaging, ensuring the organization is prepared for rival counter-moves before a product hits the market. Link to the Article
Early Warning Systems: Proactive Risk Management for Superior Performance and Strategic Foresight (original language: Spanish)
Author: Adrian Alvarez, Midas’ Managing Partner
Media: Pharmaceutical Management
Year: 2007
Crisis management is often just a late reaction to missed signals. This work introduces the “business radar” framework, a systematic approach to capturing weak market signals, allowing executives to transition from reactive firefighting to a proactive posture that capitalizes on emerging opportunities and neutralizes threats before they escalate. Link to the Article
About the Author
Adrian Alvarez, PhD
Managing Partner, Midas Consulting
Adrian is a strategic architect specializing in competitive foresight, strategic intelligence, and scenario simulation. Throughout his career, he has served as a trusted advisor to multinational corporations and executive leadership teams, guiding them through high-stakes decisions involving growth strategies, market defense, and international expansion.
A Wharton alumnus and MBA professor, Adrian seamlessly bridges the gap between rigorous academic research and over two decades of hands-on experience navigating high-uncertainty business landscapes.